Coronavirus run outs

[nelmo]

That report predicted 500k deaths in the UK alone if we did nothing. So far, we have done nothing - number of deaths? 144.

Tricky to see how they got 500k, no?

[leegav]

That report predicted 500k deaths in the UK alone if we did nothing. So far, we have done nothing - number of deaths? 144.

Tricky to see how they got 500k, no?

Done nothing?
If you read the whole report it explains how they came to those figures. It explains it exactly in their methodology section. That said the maps are based on best effort predictions using current data from other countries....but these two guys are apparently some of the best pandemic scientists on the planet..
And those prediction are over the next 2 years, not the past week.
Even if they were 90% wrong that's still 50,000 worst case scenario. Sounds to me from following there stuff that they reckon anything below 20,000 they will be happy.
Shocking really...
Anyway....can't catch it in a kit car with no passengers in mid Wales...hopefully

[leegav]

Don't get me wrong Lee I'm not saying I know more. Goodness no! I just hope they're not right I guess. It is good to hear from some credible scientists rather than the usual political BS. I just hope those that need to stay safe, do.

Any yes I'd already heard the argument for childcare and not passing on to grandparents. Which is absolutely sensible.

It's the school situation that's the interesting one because they are not actually closed. They still have to stay open for key workers children, vulnerable children etc but the educators still don't know what "Key" roles are or which others still have to be there. They also don't know how they are going to staff it.... as most people are saying "no way!" to going in. It should fall on the senior leadership but that will be enlightening to see what happens.

I did think it was interesting also that delivery drivers are included in key roles but if you were ever to write a list of key positions in society I think most would say Drs, police, ambulance etc and that delivery folk wouldn't have featured. Interesting to see how an emergency can change our perceptions of what's or who are important.

Good to hear your opinions on this and thanks for the extra info.

I was think the same thing... we all have a part to play in society and this has really brought home that reality.

[b33fy]

That report predicted 500k deaths in the UK alone if we did nothing. So far, we have done nothing - number of deaths? 144.

Tricky to see how they got 500k, no?

Done nothing?
If you read the whole report it explains how they came to those figures. It explains it exactly in their methodology section. That said the maps are based on best effort predictions using current data from other countries....but these two guys are apparently some of the best pandemic scientists on the planet..
And those prediction are over the next 2 years, not the past week.
Even if they were 90% wrong that's still 50,000 worst case scenario. Sounds to me from following there stuff that they reckon anything below 20,000 they will be happy.
Shocking really...
Anyway....can't catch it in a kit car with no passengers in mid Wales...hopefully

I haven’t read the report though numbers are available elsewhere.(some here)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Currently the death rate in China et al for those known cases is around 3%. So with a UK population of 67 million, 500k is not a bad number if we do absolutely nothing.

It is thought for every known case there will be 10 going untested. Those less vulnerable need to head advice, social distancing, wash hands, etc, self isolate if signs and symptoms etc to protect everyone, not just themselves. Conversely those that are in high risk groups are taking steps, working from home, limiting social contact etc, We also need support the high risk groups where we can, ie elderly relatives, sick family etc.

I certainly see the above happening through my day to day travels (NHS across Kent) though we also see individuals not taking the threat that seriously and putting others at risk.

The situation is very fluid, as Lee states, the very best are working on this once every 100 years event and as much as I think Boris is a twat, I believe on this occasion, he is driven by scientific advice rather than political gains and am trusting him and his advisors with this.

They do not know all the answers or maybe not as much detail as we want, as it is a unique event with the situation changing rapidly. We have to go along with the most current advice and do what we can to slow the spread so the outbreak can be managed more effectively.

I avoid too much speculation and drivel through social media and the sensory overload on the news. It all adds to anxiety and confusion. Best to focus on the government briefings and any actions arising from that, as we all have a responsibility to do our bit.

[DJ.]

Well said Mike

Good information Lee, I'd read that through another source, and it was an eye opener! I had originally thought the measures rather OTT for a virus that didn't sound much worse than flu, but the government would be very irresponsible to let the virus spread unchecked. Particularly as the NHS doesn't have enough ventilators for the usual winter demand, and any extra cases will overwhelm the system.

I really don't fancy being the doctor who has to choose which patients get the support and who is left to die

[Crunchie Gears]

I think we all have a social responsibility to do the right thing. I am very risk tolerant but due to pressure from people I work with and my grownup kids Mary and I cur our holiday in S.Africa short as they were considering closing the borders (Not a bad place to be quarantined).

We are both fit but in the age related risk group and are social distancing. My plans for the season have been modified, I will take the racing and trackdays on advisement from the scientists not by emotional hope.

Thanks to all that are taking this seriously and ensure old people like me are kept safe.

[Rexholme]

https://youtu.be/tQD4B_hmdvo

I make no apologies for how upsetting this link is but you need to hear it. Don’t let children hear it.

[davehall]

Wow, that’s powerful. Just wish all the morons that don’t seem to care would listen to that although I doubt that they have the capacity to take the seriousness of that message on board.

[nelmo]

Hmm, is it just me or does he sound like a bit of a drama queen? Did anyone check if he actually is a doctor? There have been 250 odd deaths in the WHOLE country, so this guy can only have seen a few at most but hes talking like it's a war zone.

He's also saying things that don't match with what I've read from the government - people who recover do recover fully, I've not seen any official report that people are surviving with damaged lungs? I've seen that on FB which is a hotbed of nonsense, hence my suspicion of this guy.

[davehall]

Drama queen? In case you’ve missed it, it is a drama and that is exactly the sort of attitude the thousand of numpties, who are ignoring the government advice, have.

This is extremely serious and whether the doctor is genuine or not, you can not dismiss what he said.